bestofct

tech people discovering in real time how complicated the idea of prediction markets on political events really is

"its easy just resolve yes when something is an invasion"

unfortunately for the "market will solve all problems" people, the sociology of market construction and its separation into the realm of clean mathematics and out of the realm of squishy human emotions, politics and structures is an unsolved problem

ℵᵥ

https://x.com/alpeh_v/status/1869366329297543364

the current @Polymarket drama:

- almost $10 million in volume on this bet
- this market should have already resolved to YES
- however, the current oracle (UMA) is not resolving it
- most people in the comments suspect oracle manipulation for personal gain by UMA whales
- these… https://t.co/BNFs8r6mo2