@deodad

this question was in reference to a prediction market about individual college football players choosing to transfer schools or not my comment was "what could wrong" the answer is to the extent prediction markets are for events that can be manipulated they become reflexive—the market itself becomes a determining factor in the outcome in this case a football player's decision to transfer schools can make them or others a large sum of money this gives rise to things like 1) the player making a decision in order to capture some of that money, 2) random strangers being financially motivated in their decision which can lead to all sorts of weird influences, the most obvious and pernicious being threats the philosophic term "hyperstition" popularized by the CCRU and now being used by some startups / people in the prediction market space, captures the concept broadly: ideas that become self-fulfilling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperstition

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