dehaizhou (dehaizhou)

The current market expectation is lower than the previous value. If it can be achieved, it will definitely be positive for market sentiment. 5. There are two consecutive important meetings in the third week of March. On the 19th, the Bank of Japan held a monetary policy press conference. The probability of Japan continuing to raise interest rates in March is very low, but if it chooses to raise interest rates contrary to the norm, it will still be bad for market sentiment, but it is indeed highly likely that there will be no adjustment. The next day, on the 20th, is the US interest rate meeting.

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6. There is no point in discussing the fourth week of March for the time being, because the dot plot as a dividing line may be the general direction of Q2. Further analysis still has to wait until the dot plot comes out.

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ba. The expectation of more than two interest rate cuts in 2025 will have a greater positive impact on sentiment, indicating that Federal Reserve officials believe that multiple interest rate cuts are good for the U.S. economy and inflation. bb. Some friends may ask whether it is a good thing or a bad thing if the Fed increases the number of interest rate cuts because it believes that the probability of an economic recession has increased during the meeting. In my personal opinion, even if the Fed has such an expectation, it is highly likely that Powell will not express an unfavorable expectation for the economy, that is, an economic recession. If a reporter asks, he should say "I will pay attention to the economic trend." Therefore, the reason for the increase in interest rate cuts is unlikely to be due to the expected recession. After all, the US economy is still good now.

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Summarize: So to sum up, most of the recent decline in Bitcoin is related to Trump’s tariff policy, and tariffs affect inflation, and inflation affects the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, the March dot plot is the focus of the game. The additional White House crypto summit is more likely to be good for the industry. I don’t believe that Trump will say anything unfavorable to BTC at the summit, and after all, it’s just talk. Although investors have anticipated Trump’s "pulling the market with his mouth", this is the first cryptocurrency summit held by the president of the United States at the White House, so we can still look forward to it.

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