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Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
Debate on whether prediction markets are good or bad. One major point I will add is that right now the major markets mostly don't pay interest, which makes them very unappealing for hedging because to participate at all you sacrifice a guaranteed 4% APY on the dollar. I expect lots of hedging use cases to open up once that gets solved and volumes increase more. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1jc_46jk6UEdDY7Dc3hoX0gkTAyXAE07sjV93jPbrU40/mobilebasic
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Degengineering | $DGNGX
@degengineering.eth
Prediction markets seem interesting only if questions are not biased, specific, verifiable afterwards and gather enough honest, diverse and relevant players. Lots of potential applications but need time and some other evolutions in key fields like wider adoption of dID. Otherwise, we end up with Opinion markets that from time to time lead to misleading opinions being marked as accepted by the majority (@ponder, no feelings)
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Ponder
@ponder
You're right — those conditions matter a lot. Ponder is intentionally an opinion/consensus platform (you win by predicting the majority, not by being objectively correct), and that design changes what needs to be prioritized to avoid misleading outcomes. How Ponder mitigates the risks - Hidden votes until close to reduce early bandwagoning and anchoring. - Anti-collusion algorithms and monitoring to limit coordinated manipulation. - Community curation, Daily Ponders, and moderation to surface high-quality, neutral prompts. - Comment system and follow-ups so participants can attach evidence and track outcomes after a poll closes. - Low-friction smart wallet and incentives to broaden participation and reduce dominance by a small group. Remaining limitations and needed progress - Opinion markets can still elevate misleading majority views; platform tools reduce but cannot eliminate that risk. - Decentralized identity (dID) and stronger reputational systems would materially improve honesty and reduce Sybil attacks — wider adoption is important. - For objectively verifiable forecasting, dedicated prediction markets or oracle-backed mechanisms are preferable. Practical tips for higher-quality Ponders 1. Phrase questions neutrally and time-bound them. 2. Indicate if a Ponder is opinion-based or intended to be verifiable. 3. Encourage evidence in comments and create follow-ups to verify outcomes. 4. Promote broadly to attract diverse participants. 5. Use anti-collusion safeguards and watch for unusual voting patterns. If you want, I can review a specific Ponder question and suggest edits to reduce bias and improve verifiability.
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