Contributor
@contributor
233 Following
34 Followers
A whale just woke up from a 14-year hibernation, activating a wallet holding 10,000 BTC (wallet #6).
In total, six wallets, each containing 10,000 BTC, were reactivated today after 14.3 years of dormancy. All are believed to belong to the same early Bitcoin OG, who currently controls 80,009 BTC across eight different addresses:
The first two wallets received 20,000 BTC (~$15.6K at the time, now ~$2.18B) on April 2, 2011, when Bitcoin was priced at $0.78.
The remaining six wallets received 60,009 BTC (~$202K at the time, now ~$6.52B) on May 4, 2011, when Bitcoin was at $3.37.
Wallet list:
1KbrSKrT3GeEruTuuYYUSQ35JwKbrAWJYm – funds moved
12tLs9c9RsALt4ockxa1hB4iTCTSmxj2me – funds moved
1P1iThxBH542Gmk1kZNXyji4E4iwpvSbrt – funds moved
1CPaziTqeEixPoSFtJxu74uDGbpEAotZom – funds moved
14YK4mzJGo5NKkNnmVJeuEAQftLt795Gec – funds moved
1ucXXZQSEf4zny2HRwAQKtVpkLPTUKRtt – funds moved
1f1miYFQWTzdLiCBxtHHnNiW7WAWPUccr – dormant
1BAFWQhH9pNkz3mZDQ1tWrtKkSHVCkc3fV – dormant
Whale season just got serious. 🐋 0 reply
0 recast
3 reactions
2 replies
0 recast
9 reactions
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
I have an analysis on the current Bitcoin on-chain situation.
Is Bitcoin currently a “ghost town” on-chain? 👻
- Bitcoin’s price is soaring, holding steady above $100K and just 6% below its all-time high yet on-chain activity is eerily quiet! 🧐 Glassnode’s report “An On-chain Ghost Town” reveals a stark divergence between market valuation and network activity.
So, what’s going on? 🤔
- On-chain activity is declining:
The number of daily transactions has dropped significantly since early 2025, ranging between 320K to 500K transactions per day well below the cycle peak of 734K.
This decline is mainly due to a contraction in non-monetary transactions (like Inscriptions and Runes), while monetary transactions remain relatively stable.
💰 But settlement volume remains huge:
Even with fewer transactions, the economic volume settled on the Bitcoin network remains high averaging $7.5B per day.
This suggests large entities are dominating, with the average transaction value reaching $36.2K. Transactions over $100K have increased their dominance from 66% to 89% of total network volume.
- Transaction fee pressure at record lows:
Unlike previous bull runs where higher prices typically led to skyrocketing fees due to network congestion the current fee pressure is very low. This indicates a lack of demand for block space 🤷♀️.
➡️ Activity shifting off-chain:
Most trading activity has moved to centralized exchanges, especially futures markets, which now play a leading role in price discovery.
Notably, combined trading volumes in spot, futures, and options markets off-chain often exceed on-chain settlement volume by 7 to 16 times! 🤯
⚠️ Leverage is rising, but quality is improving:
Total Open Interest in futures and options has reached around $96.2B, indicating significant leverage buildup in the Bitcoin economy.
However, a bright spot is the improved collateral structure positions collateralized with stablecoins now make up the majority of open interest, reflecting more mature risk management and stability in digital asset derivatives markets 0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
The Market Is Speaking – But Are We Listening?
The chart above illustrates the close relationship between global money supply (Global M2) and the S&P 500 index. The more money that’s injected into the financial system, the more asset prices especially stocks surge. The white line (M2) and the yellow line (S&P 500) have moved almost in lockstep over the past decade.
As long as the money supply continues to expand, the stock bubble may not burst. But this monetary flow cannot grow forever.
Indeed, after the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks flooded the economy with liquidity to prevent collapse, leading to a rapid ballooning of the global financial balance sheet. As a result, M2 spiked and along with it, the stock market soared, despite fractures in the real economy.
However, history consistently reminds us that no stimulus lasts forever. When inflation rises, interest rates must go up, and cheap money retreats at that point, the market is forced to “breathe” on its own, without the artificial support of M2.
Lawrence G. McDonald, author of The Bear Traps Report, once emphasized:
"The markets are speaking loudly and clearly; we just need to have ears to listen."
This isn’t just trading advice it’s a profound warning about the global financial system. The market always sends signals before something happens the question is, do we have the ears to hear them? 0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
🔥 Celestia Is Struggling Under the Weight of Its Own Narrative, While Hyperliquid Triumphs
The main idea is that when a project launches its token, the market often prices it based on the grand narrative rather than actual progress. Celestia is “bleeding” narrative-wise it promised a modular blockchain future but hasn’t yet gained enough traction. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid is winning by underpromising and overdelivering.
The market views this gap as a sort of narrative debt, which demands rapid progress to be repaid otherwise, the token price will reflect the shortfall.
🎯 Personally, I think Celestia might be judged a bit too early. Its long-term potential is still there, and comparing it directly to Hyperliquid might be a bit off since the products are fundamentally different. There’s also a lack of clear valuation metrics, and part of the “debt” may stem from an unexpected staking strategy; memecoins lie outside this model altogether. As a startup, Celestia doesn’t necessarily need revenue right away — perhaps the real issue is that market expectations were too high.
Scalability is the key long-term factor, especially for long-term holders (like Namik with TIA), because it directly affects competitiveness. From a narrative standpoint, learning from Hyperliquid’s bottom-up approach instead of making grand promises can help avoid market psychology traps. Tokenomics remains a tool for gauging financial health, while competition forces investors to stay agile and ready to pivot if a project loses its edge.
These three aspects scalability, narrative strategy, and tokenomics can help guide how we evaluate and decide to hold a coin. 0 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
0 reply
0 recast
10 reactions
0 reply
0 recast
6 reactions
0 reply
0 recast
7 reactions