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I have an analysis on the current Bitcoin on-chain situation.
Is Bitcoin currently a “ghost town” on-chain? 👻
- Bitcoin’s price is soaring, holding steady above $100K and just 6% below its all-time high yet on-chain activity is eerily quiet! 🧐 Glassnode’s report “An On-chain Ghost Town” reveals a stark divergence between market valuation and network activity.
So, what’s going on? 🤔
- On-chain activity is declining:
The number of daily transactions has dropped significantly since early 2025, ranging between 320K to 500K transactions per day well below the cycle peak of 734K.
This decline is mainly due to a contraction in non-monetary transactions (like Inscriptions and Runes), while monetary transactions remain relatively stable.
💰 But settlement volume remains huge:
Even with fewer transactions, the economic volume settled on the Bitcoin network remains high averaging $7.5B per day.
This suggests large entities are dominating, with the average transaction value reaching $36.2K. Transactions over $100K have increased their dominance from 66% to 89% of total network volume.
- Transaction fee pressure at record lows:
Unlike previous bull runs where higher prices typically led to skyrocketing fees due to network congestion the current fee pressure is very low. This indicates a lack of demand for block space 🤷♀️.
➡️ Activity shifting off-chain:
Most trading activity has moved to centralized exchanges, especially futures markets, which now play a leading role in price discovery.
Notably, combined trading volumes in spot, futures, and options markets off-chain often exceed on-chain settlement volume by 7 to 16 times! 🤯
⚠️ Leverage is rising, but quality is improving:
Total Open Interest in futures and options has reached around $96.2B, indicating significant leverage buildup in the Bitcoin economy.
However, a bright spot is the improved collateral structure positions collateralized with stablecoins now make up the majority of open interest, reflecting more mature risk management and stability in digital asset derivatives markets 0 reply
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The Market Is Speaking – But Are We Listening?
The chart above illustrates the close relationship between global money supply (Global M2) and the S&P 500 index. The more money that’s injected into the financial system, the more asset prices especially stocks surge. The white line (M2) and the yellow line (S&P 500) have moved almost in lockstep over the past decade.
As long as the money supply continues to expand, the stock bubble may not burst. But this monetary flow cannot grow forever.
Indeed, after the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks flooded the economy with liquidity to prevent collapse, leading to a rapid ballooning of the global financial balance sheet. As a result, M2 spiked and along with it, the stock market soared, despite fractures in the real economy.
However, history consistently reminds us that no stimulus lasts forever. When inflation rises, interest rates must go up, and cheap money retreats at that point, the market is forced to “breathe” on its own, without the artificial support of M2.
Lawrence G. McDonald, author of The Bear Traps Report, once emphasized:
"The markets are speaking loudly and clearly; we just need to have ears to listen."
This isn’t just trading advice it’s a profound warning about the global financial system. The market always sends signals before something happens the question is, do we have the ears to hear them? 0 reply
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🔥 Celestia Is Struggling Under the Weight of Its Own Narrative, While Hyperliquid Triumphs
The main idea is that when a project launches its token, the market often prices it based on the grand narrative rather than actual progress. Celestia is “bleeding” narrative-wise it promised a modular blockchain future but hasn’t yet gained enough traction. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid is winning by underpromising and overdelivering.
The market views this gap as a sort of narrative debt, which demands rapid progress to be repaid otherwise, the token price will reflect the shortfall.
🎯 Personally, I think Celestia might be judged a bit too early. Its long-term potential is still there, and comparing it directly to Hyperliquid might be a bit off since the products are fundamentally different. There’s also a lack of clear valuation metrics, and part of the “debt” may stem from an unexpected staking strategy; memecoins lie outside this model altogether. As a startup, Celestia doesn’t necessarily need revenue right away — perhaps the real issue is that market expectations were too high.
Scalability is the key long-term factor, especially for long-term holders (like Namik with TIA), because it directly affects competitiveness. From a narrative standpoint, learning from Hyperliquid’s bottom-up approach instead of making grand promises can help avoid market psychology traps. Tokenomics remains a tool for gauging financial health, while competition forces investors to stay agile and ready to pivot if a project loses its edge.
These three aspects scalability, narrative strategy, and tokenomics can help guide how we evaluate and decide to hold a coin. 0 reply
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The market is undergoing a correction, but with every dip, whales, VCs, and market makers continue to accumulate ETH.
A prime example is BlackRock, one of the world’s leading financial institutions. Specifically in June, BlackRock has made significant ETH purchases even selling some of its BTC holdings to acquire more ETH. Its total ETH balance has increased considerably, now holding over 1.6 million ETH tokens. A large portion of this supply has been funneled into BlackRock’s ETF during this period.
Similarly, when looking at ETH ETF inflows, we can clearly see a consistent trend of positive net flows. This suggests that once the market stabilizes, ETH could potentially deliver higher ROI compared to BTC and SOL and may also ignite a new wave of growth across the Ethereum ecosystem. 0 reply
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Among countless Layer 2s, which chain do you choose?
>> Base
Lately, Base has become a major focus within the crypto community. The shift from Solana to Base isn’t random — here are the key reasons why, along with 6 promising projects on Base you shouldn’t overlook!
Why Is Base Rising?
1. Fewer tokens, easier to find hidden gems
Base is still in its early stages, with a relatively small number of tokens. This makes it easier for quality projects to stand out and attract investor attention, unlike more crowded ecosystems like Solana.
2. Growth potential
As a newer blockchain, Base has less "noise," creating big opportunities for high-quality projects with strong upside potential.
3. Backed by Coinbase
Coinbase, one of the top exchanges, is actively pushing Base. Even meme coins on Base have a chance of being listed on Coinbase, offering greater liquidity and credibility.
4. Capital rotation
Many expect capital to rotate from Solana to Base, especially as Base continues to attract new investors. 1 reply
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