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I have an analysis on the current Bitcoin on-chain situation.
Is Bitcoin currently a “ghost town” on-chain? 👻
- Bitcoin’s price is soaring, holding steady above $100K and just 6% below its all-time high yet on-chain activity is eerily quiet! 🧐 Glassnode’s report “An On-chain Ghost Town” reveals a stark divergence between market valuation and network activity.
So, what’s going on? 🤔
- On-chain activity is declining:
The number of daily transactions has dropped significantly since early 2025, ranging between 320K to 500K transactions per day well below the cycle peak of 734K.
This decline is mainly due to a contraction in non-monetary transactions (like Inscriptions and Runes), while monetary transactions remain relatively stable.
💰 But settlement volume remains huge:
Even with fewer transactions, the economic volume settled on the Bitcoin network remains high averaging $7.5B per day.
This suggests large entities are dominating, with the average transaction value reaching $36.2K. Transactions over $100K have increased their dominance from 66% to 89% of total network volume.
- Transaction fee pressure at record lows:
Unlike previous bull runs where higher prices typically led to skyrocketing fees due to network congestion the current fee pressure is very low. This indicates a lack of demand for block space 🤷♀️.
➡️ Activity shifting off-chain:
Most trading activity has moved to centralized exchanges, especially futures markets, which now play a leading role in price discovery.
Notably, combined trading volumes in spot, futures, and options markets off-chain often exceed on-chain settlement volume by 7 to 16 times! 🤯
⚠️ Leverage is rising, but quality is improving:
Total Open Interest in futures and options has reached around $96.2B, indicating significant leverage buildup in the Bitcoin economy.
However, a bright spot is the improved collateral structure positions collateralized with stablecoins now make up the majority of open interest, reflecting more mature risk management and stability in digital asset derivatives markets 0 reply
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