@changqing78
Regarding the Fed, I’ve long thought “what’s done is done”—if they can’t cut rates next year, the balance sheet will suffer.
I just miscalculated; I didn’t expect this round of rate cuts to be so dovish. Likely, H1 2026 will see two cuts plus balance sheet expansion.
Powell explicitly noted that payroll data overestimates by ~60k per month—“a world where job creation is negative” requires the Fed to monitor very carefully.
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