Chang Qing (changqing78)

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According to Coinglass, currently in the bear market, BG is aggressively gaining market share, closely following Binance. Its daily futures trading volume is about $25.2B, accounting for 9.5% of the global market. Liquidity is leading, ranking in the top three. In a bear market, exchange trading volumes generally decline, so maintaining this level of futures volume is remarkable—it shows that participants still have capital and are actively bottom-fishing.

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Regarding the Fed, I’ve long thought “what’s done is done”—if they can’t cut rates next year, the balance sheet will suffer. I just miscalculated; I didn’t expect this round of rate cuts to be so dovish. Likely, H1 2026 will see two cuts plus balance sheet expansion. Powell explicitly noted that payroll data overestimates by ~60k per month—“a world where job creation is negative” requires the Fed to monitor very carefully.

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At first, Tether only allocated a small portion of its reserves (around 5%) to Bitcoin and gold, planning to offset any risk with one year of interest income if needed. Unexpectedly, both BTC and gold surged, pushing the allocation ratio above 10%. With unrealized gains included, the reserve ratio may have once exceeded 110%. At some point, seeing large paper profits, Tether paid out part of the gains as fiat dividends, bringing the reserve ratio down to about 104%. In theory, after the payout they should’ve rebalanced BTC and gold back to ~5%. But they didn’t — staying bullish instead — which pushed the ratio even higher, now around 12.5%. Honestly, either keeping a 110%+ reserve without dividends, or rebalancing back to under 5% after payouts, wouldn’t have caused this level of FUD. But they did neither. Anyway, using reserves directly for active trading is still questionable.

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The essence of trading is killing your own ego and understanding the pain points of whales — not listening to “teachers,” because they’re retail too. Retail’s pain point: not enough money. Whales’ pain point: too much money — can’t buy in or sell out. If BlackRock or a top market maker wants to buy $1B in BTC, they can’t just smash “market buy.” That would pump the price 10% instantly — massive slippage. So they need huge amounts of sell orders at the same price level. Where does that liquidity come from? Only one place: retail stop-losses and liquidation orders. They hunt your stops not out of malice, but because your liquidity is the fuel they need to build their positions. Understand this, and the whole market looks different.

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Hey Farcaster, I’m Chang Qing from Hong Kong 🇭🇰 Just joined this vibrant community — excited to explore, learn, and build together. If you’re into on-chain stories, art, and new ideas, let’s connect and make waves 🌊

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Dont forget to touch the grass fam.

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