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Why most Predictions should be called Hypothesis 👇 And why you should care about way less than you think! People like to call everything they say about the future — a prediction. I'd rather not. Prediction implies certainty. Or at least confidence. And confidence about the future is mostly an illusion. We don’t predict outcomes. We hypothesize them. Or wish for them. 🙏 A hypothesis is an assumption built on always-incomplete information: a handful of facts, fragments of context, and a thin slice of history we happen to remember. That’s it. No matter how smart we are, our view is partial. That’s not pessimism. It’s better semantics. More accurate. More thoughtful. Also, there’s no reason to feel bad about our lack of ability to predict — especially when it comes to short-term outcomes. The world is wildly nonlinear. Small variables compound. Unknown unknowns dominate.🌍 Let's just switch lenses here for a moment and notice how little we actually control. Start small. — Our homes. My apartment/Your house... Even there, control is very conditional. - It depends on neighbors you didn’t choose. - On water, heat, electricity systems I don’t run. - On weather patterns, supply chains, local politics. - On peace or war. - On gravity working the same way tomorrow as it did today. - We don’t control the sun. Or the moon. Or the basic forces holding our reality together. Now zoom out one level. - Your street — Your city — Your village Control evaporates quickly. - Go further: region, country, continent, world. At that point, influence approaches zero. Yet everywhere you look — news, TV, social media — we're told the opposite. - We’re told we must care. - That we can influence outcomes. - That our outrage matters. But it isn’t reality. It’s an agenda. ‼️ Attention is valuable. Emotion is extractable ‼️ Clicks, votes, transactions — someone always benefits. It’s just rarely us. And here’s the strange part. While obsessing over things we cannot control, we routinely ignore the few things we fully can. There are three: - Our emotional responses - Our body and its movement - Our mental focus That’s it. These are not dependent on your location. Or your language. Or your wealth. Or your education. Yet most people treat them as fixed traits. - “That’s just how I am.” - “This is my personality.” - “This is my situation.” Instead of slow, consistent improvement, we outsource our attention to outside voices telling us to fix the world, fight strangers online, or rage at politicians, billionaires, or broken promises. They get what they want. And we usually don’t. So yes — I will publish my 2026–2030 hypotheses soon. Got side-tracked here 😀 The times are wild. Interesting. Worth thinking about. But before that, I want to state a wish. I know I can’t control you. But maybe — just maybe — I can influence your attention for a small bit of time. - To spend more time on what you can control. - And less time on what you can’t. That’s my wish for all of us in 2026. - For you. - For myself. - For those who care. Now, back to the beginning. Time to actually write those hypotheses. 😇

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