Content
@
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
If I predict rain tomorrow based on satellite and radar imagery showing a cold front forming, and it does rain, I’m right. If I predict rain because I saw a black cat walk under a ladder, and it rains, am I right (but for the wrong reasons) or am I just wrong? Can one ever be right for the wrong reasons?
7 replies
0 recast
1 reaction
Connor McCormick ☀️
@nor
What information would you have to see in order to conclude that black cats under ladders is actually informative of weather patterns?
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Thomas
@aviationdoctor.eth
Like everything else, repeatability under controlled conditions (that and Nestle would have purchased the rights to all black cats)
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Connor McCormick ☀️
@nor
Right, and that would require you to accurately record that the predictions were *right*. But if you practice justificationism you'll happily throw out the predictions because they come from a methodology (a model / explanation) you don't endorse, so they can't be right. iow, to be wrong you must grant they're right
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
