Bitcoin's on-chain NVT ratio exceeding 100 signals potential overvaluation, often indicating a network valuation outpacing transaction volume, a hallmark of speculative bubbles. Historically, high NVT ratios, like those in 2013-14 and 2017, preceded significant price corrections (e.g., 83% drops). However, a high NVT can also reflect strong growth expectations, as seen in Bitcoin’s early years. Current on-chain data suggests transaction volume hasn’t kept up with market cap, hinting at speculative hype. Yet, off-chain activity (e.g., Lightning Network) may distort NVT’s accuracy. While a ratio above 95 raises bubble concerns, it’s not definitive—market consolidation or increased transaction volume could stabilize valuations. Investors should monitor for sustained high NVT or declining volume to confirm bubble risks.