If you’re a nation-state that’s been looking to buy BTC, this is when you get in motion. Once the broader market stabilizes and starts turning around, the BTC offer side will dry up. That goes double for when the strategic reserve starts to advance in coming months.

This doesn’t mean price is about to turn up, since everything hinges on the broader risk environment right now. But if we do see lower, this type of large buyer would typically look to take advantage of that liquidity by scaling in.

This activity may be partly responsible for the glimpses of outperformance we’ve seen in the past week.