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📈 Markets are up… but is this rally sustainable?
After a US–China trade deal, optimism returned — but signs of buyer fatigue and weak momentum are clear.
In this thread, we break down 3 likely market scenarios for 2025 🧵
#Markets #S&P500 #Investing #Stocks

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🔁 Scenario 3: Sideways Consolidation
The market chops around in a range, digesting bad news without collapsing.
📌 Recession is avoided, but sentiment remains cautious for months.
This has happened before: 2011 (EU crisis), 1998 (Asian crisis) — and the market eventually recovered.

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📉 Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback
The market breaks below April’s lows as economic conditions worsen.
🧾 US GDP already contracted in Q1 2025.
But we haven’t seen a major spike in layoffs yet — unlike 2001 or 2008 ⚠️

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🔍 Scenario 1: V-Shape Recovery
The market quickly bounces back to all-time highs.
📊 This happened in 2020 (COVID) and 2009 (GFC).
But: those recoveries were driven by massive liquidity from the Fed… which is not happening now ❌