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Here’s a quick rundown of what top think tanks and analysts are saying about the recent attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and what might come next.
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, a big-name analyst, says he’s not blown away by these airstrikes.
Why? Because Israel and the U.S. didn’t take out Iran’s key nuclear materials or production sites. Operations “Rising Lion” and “Midnight Hammer” were tactical wins—super impressive—but they might end up being strategic flops.
Netanyahu justified the strikes, saying Iran has 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium, enough for 9 bombs if further enriched.
This uranium was mostly stored in underground tunnels near Isfahan’s conversion facility.
But despite heavy U.S. and Israeli attacks, those tunnels and the uranium seem untouched.
Nobody even knows where the uranium is now! IAEA’s Grossi says Iran moved it. Marco Rubio claims nothing moves in Iran, but trucks were spotted sealing those tunnels two days before the strikes.
To be fair, some Trump Republicans, like J.D. Vance, admit Iran still has nuclear materials and say we’ll “talk to them about it.
” The claim is that the U.S. wrecked Iran’s ability to enrich uranium or turn it into metal, so no big deal. But there’s a problem. Sure, strikes on Fordow and Natanz hit hard, but a massive underground site near Natanz—where Iran can build centrifuges—was left alone.
Iran moved its centrifuge production to the “heart of the mountain” in 2022. That site’s at least 10,000 square meters, and we don’t know what’s going on there.
Iran also has a new enrichment facility near Isfahan that the IAEA was set to inspect, but Israel hit other sites instead.
So, Iran still has 400 kg of 60% uranium, the know-how to build centrifuges, and at least one or two underground enrichment sites. If Iran decides to build a bomb, it can install 1.5 centrifuge cascades per week.
In 6 weeks, that’s 9 cascades of IR-6 machines, which could enrich all 400 kg to weapons-grade in 60 days. Total time: about 5 months.These strikes look flashy, but if two of the most epic military ops in modern times can’t fully stop Iran’s nuclear program, that tactical brilliance might be serving a dumb strategy.
They didn’t set Iran back as much as the JCPOA did. The same folks who griped about the JCPOA’s “sunset” clauses are now cool with delaying Iran’s bomb by just a few months.
Lewis says the real goal might be regime change in Iran, not just killing the nuclear program. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said in May 2025 that Iran hadn’t restarted its weapons program. When Rubio was asked about it, he called the intel “irrelevant.” That only makes sense if the real target is the regime itself, not the nukes. 3 replies
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