Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (adamcorchan)

@adamcorchan AI Agents are nowhere as robust as people think, we’re not that close. Successful ones will be extremely purpose built, function tailored and extend human capacity, not replace it - at least for the next 3-5 years. How can I be so sure? OpenAI who has far superior internal models still pays $245k-$345k for a frontend engineer. If for $300k of compute, their best models cannot build an AI Agent to manage a full frontend workflow, then it’s not possible to do today at the right level of sophistication. A human needs to be involved in the process. That’s also the sweet spot. We can 100x human capacity, output and productivity, without major labor sacrifice. But tailor your expectations, and your investments, in accordance with that trend. Humans in workflows matter. 🤷‍♂️

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A great disturbance in the force - It was as if millions of gen z voices suddenly cried out and were suddenly silenced.

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@adamcorchan The US imports 4.3M barrels *a day* of oil from Canada. It’s also where 14% of all US exported goods end up. And: -8% of all US natural gas (99% of imported) -40% of all US uranium. -87% of all US potash. -48% of all US timber. -63% of US refined lithium. -15% of all US cobalt. -13% of all US graphite (but the other other 97% is China) -The only friendly country with extensive titanium deposits -80% of all non-Chinese rare earth elements imported into the US. Other than trade war with China, damaging trade relations with Canada is the single worst thing the US can do - as everything will become eyewateringly expensive overnight. That level of inflation will be like anything we’ve seen in the past 20 years. And the industries hit the worst will be high end tech and fuel prices.

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Nasty reaction to the ISM PMI. This pushed investors over the edge to no longer expecting a high likelihood of rate cuts moving forward. Caused a huge spike in the 10Y & 20Y yields, and a sudden sell off in BTC et al.

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