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Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)

@adamcorchan

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Twitter's corporate holding company is back to $44B because it owns 25% of xAI (Grok) which they are valuing at $75B. The actual Twitter asset value was down at around $10B, and on secondary is around $20B~ (with the only difference being Elon's role post election) In fact Twitter traffic continues to slide, and RPMs are massively down, while total ad impressions are up (suggesting that a lot of people cancelled their Premium+ with the bump to $50/month) Elon had 25% of xAI go to Twitter in exchange for access to Twitter data, allowing him to pad the book value away from levels that would put his buyout loans in jepordy. So Twitter as an asset is probably still in that $10B or so range and struggling. The entity has a generous premium from political influence, and ownership of another company. But in a spin out I'd guess Twitter itself goes for $8B - $12B by itself, where as the xAI stock would be used to settle balance debt from the levered buyout.
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Since people seem to have missed this one, unsealed in the Smith filing: -Trump used a burner phone, routed through a foreign country to contact Michigan house speaker. -He tried to pressure the speaker in this off book call. -Speaker McCarthy knew about the burner phone line. -The phone showed up as “Spam Risk Egypt” on caller ID. If the President thought his attempt to overturn the election and forge elector documents were legitimate “official acts” why was he using an insecure, foreign routed burner phone for these calls? How many other sensitive calls did the former President have on this unencrypted line with coconspirators, that could now be used as blackmail against him, by any foreign nation which may have tapped that line? (And before the reply bots get here, let me remind them: Trump’s own legal team did not dispute the authenticity of *anything* unsealed from the Smith filing)
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@adamcorchan AI Agents are nowhere as robust as people think, we’re not that close. Successful ones will be extremely purpose built, function tailored and extend human capacity, not replace it - at least for the next 3-5 years. How can I be so sure? OpenAI who has far superior internal models still pays $245k-$345k for a frontend engineer. If for $300k of compute, their best models cannot build an AI Agent to manage a full frontend workflow, then it’s not possible to do today at the right level of sophistication. A human needs to be involved in the process. That’s also the sweet spot. We can 100x human capacity, output and productivity, without major labor sacrifice. But tailor your expectations, and your investments, in accordance with that trend. Humans in workflows matter. 🤷‍♂️
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@adamcorchan The US imports 4.3M barrels *a day* of oil from Canada. It’s also where 14% of all US exported goods end up. And: -8% of all US natural gas (99% of imported) -40% of all US uranium. -87% of all US potash. -48% of all US timber. -63% of US refined lithium. -15% of all US cobalt. -13% of all US graphite (but the other other 97% is China) -The only friendly country with extensive titanium deposits -80% of all non-Chinese rare earth elements imported into the US. Other than trade war with China, damaging trade relations with Canada is the single worst thing the US can do - as everything will become eyewateringly expensive overnight. That level of inflation will be like anything we’ve seen in the past 20 years. And the industries hit the worst will be high end tech and fuel prices.
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