Is a long winter coming for our digital assets?

At minimum, the weather is cooling.

• Rate cuts (lack thereof)
• Weakening soft data
• Trade war postponement, not truce
• Upcoming macro likely to hurt rather than heal
• LE.  (Liquidity Extraction)

Put the spread in the bag. HFT/Macro/Tech/Memes • Computer Engineer

The London implementation, details still being released but centers on the Geneva agreement

What that was:

◇ August 10: Postponement or highest tariffs
◇ 30/10  - - US/China tariffs
◇ Not a full truce but an easing with continued negotiations

London implementation details (so far):
◇ 55/10 US/China tariffs (higher on US side)
◇ Likely not a full truce but an easing with promises

Trump's first-term trade war lasted nearly two years. This game is probably just getting started.

There is a silver lining underneath the storm:

Liquidity outside of the US is loosening with most major central banks cutting rates.  

This fights back the turmoil caused by the US but I still don’t believe it’s enough.

For a bit more depth, subscribe to my substack for mid year check in coming at the start of 2H

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Upcoming catalysts like July 9th deadline of 2/3 countries tariffs deal deadlines + doubling down of no rate cuts by the FED (markets digesting this) + JPY interest only able to move up

Signals a tougher environment rather an easing one in the short term.

Put that with the backsplash of liquidity extraction event(s) [PumpFun, Plasma] this space has never seen (it’s extractive; whether it’s out of your current holdings into these new ones or out of the space in altogether)

preparing for the cold at the very least will keep you from getting offsides during the summer lull.

This leads directly into rate cuts.

Tariffs aren’t going away and they lean into the chance to rise then they do settle.

Soft data (consumer reports) are terrible.  Inflation expectations at the highest level in 3 decades.  These are highly volatile and somewhat political data points but still.

The FED has a dual mandate and inflation is still a much bigger concern than employment. Rates stay the same and even hikes could be considered depending on tariffs effects on prices.