some thoughts on markets for 2025 🧵👇

us quities caught a nice bid after the 'Liberation day' selling. however, i think the in-flows were likely US origin.

markets had faced a -20% sell-off (6100 to 4800 on spx)

(gonna go on a tangent here)
Pres. Trump's tariffs call for an interesting strategic shift in American global dominance. 

One where the US moving from the consumer-of-first-resort and debt/weapons/dollar exporter to manufacturer-of-first-resort and restoring the old manufacturing middle class. 

Focusing their efforts to cause a global trade war with a heavy focus towards China.

Take Trump seriously but not literally. 

Given that China has no elections and Trump will have to answer to Republicans with mid-terms <1.5 yrs away - the clock is ticking.

I admire the rhetoric and thought process of Main Street's turn over Wall Street. 

As a Democratic voter, I know for sure the Dems were too cowardly to ever even speak about the struggling middle-class. Hence why they got their butts kicked.

However, there is a large missing gap in thinking that I believe market participants are missing with the Tariff talk & 'Globalism hurt America' rhetoric.

You see, globalism was the best thing to ever happen to America. 

Sure we helped spread our capital to other countries and created industries and manufacturing abroad. But this was inevitable in the path of fierce capitalism DNA. Corporations were eventually going to find their way to cheaper & harder working labor.

It isn't the world's fault that corporations and capital left America to manufacture industries and supply chains abroad. And it isn't American govt or the world's fault that copious amounts of money was made by Wall St. + corporations yet never distributed back to low-middle class America.

Imagine that we as a country get to give pieces of paper (USD) - that we print infinitely - as an exchange for goods, commodities, and resources. 

Those dollars (USD) then go back into the global trading market + they buy US debt (treasuries). 

We created the best ponzi, ever.

now we're breaking that mold of the past 30+ yrs of this globalization train we've been on to... *checks notes* build our own iPhones, make t-shirts, shoes etc.

https://tiktok.com/@voteinorout/video/7491098887617252639

Here's Dave Chappelle to explain to you why that is never happening.

(back from tangent)
Has the world sniffed out that the US hegemony is weakening or pivoting?

US Funds and institutions are paring back risk while retail 'bought the dip' last few weeks

More telling, foreign investors are selling US stocks in this heated environment.

The US markets are not prepared for a prolonged period of heightened volatility, market uncertainty and a global embargo on goods into the US, esp from China.

This is the real market risk. And I don't think the 20% SPX pullback prices in this grey swan style environment