@kyu
Back of the envelope calculation
On DefiLlama, Unisawp V2, V3, V4 annualized fee are $1.6b, $800m, $300m. Applying 1/6 (while V3 1bps and 5bps will share 1/4 🤷) as protocol fee, it translates into $450m/year.
(though I'm not sure how accurate these numbers are. Please let me know if you know a better source).
From what I heard, Uniswap interface fee made ~$150m.
So combined, $600m would be the number.
Caveats:
- I believe there are a lot of wash trading volume that would overnight disappear once protocol fee is enabled. For example, a scammy memecoin project that owns near 100% of the liquidity and wash trading to inflate the volume. So I expect there will be significant reduction in volume once fee is enabled. Not sure on the magnitude of the fake volumes though.
- Enabling protocol fee makes it worse off for the LPs. So I think it would be reasonable to assume that some LPs will move to other venue making Uniswap less liquid (though it seems like there will be incentive programs with the budget 20M UNI for a year). As the pools become less liquid, less volume will be routed through Uniswap by aggregators.
Applying 50% discount to $450m protocol, $150m+$225m ~= $375m/year..?
https://x.com/dcfgod/status/1988022297421291726