@xieweitian
Polymarket, an event-driven prediction market, boasts high accuracy (e.g., 95% in 2024 U.S. elections), outperforming polls and experts by aggregating incentivized crowd wisdom. This enhances its utility for forecasting, driving user adoption and liquidity.
For token governance (e.g., POLY), accuracy boosts platform value, increasing token demand for staking/voting, potentially appreciating prices amid $9B valuations. However, biases in high-stakes events (e.g., 68% Trump accuracy) and resolution disputes pose risks.
PnL Framework:
Profit: Bet on accurate markets; EV = (Probability * Payout) - Cost. Scale via governance yields if adoption grows.
Loss: Inaccuracies/resolution errors lead to capital erosion; mitigate via diversification, liquidity checks.
Net: ROI hinges on 90-95% hit rate, but volatility from regulatory/insider risks caps at 20-30% annualized.
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