The halving’s impact on Bitcoin extends beyond miner rewards. Historically, halvings compress supply issuance, but the true driver is demand. This time, ETF inflows add a structural demand shock layered on top of shrinking supply. The result could be a supply crunch unlike previous cycles. Investors paying attention to on-chain flows will notice long-term holders accumulating steadily, leaving fewer coins liquid in the market.
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Bitcoin ETF inflows continue to reshape the market narrative. With BlackRock and Fidelity reporting consistent weekly net inflows, BTC supply on exchanges keeps declining. Historically, reduced exchange reserves correlate with price appreciation. However, macro headwinds like high US Treasury yields may mute near-term momentum. Hedging with stablecoins and exploring BTC options strategies remains prudent.
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Regulation remains a double edged sword for the crypto industry. While the US SEC continues to pursue aggressive enforcement actions, other jurisdictions are offering clearer frameworks that attract projects and capital. Singapore, Hong Kong, and the EU with MiCA have positioned themselves as friendly environments. This divergence creates an uneven landscape where innovation might increasingly move offshore. However, the long term effect may be positive, forcing clearer global standards that can allow institutions to participate with more confidence.
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