@wuhaotian
In derivatives-dominated markets (e.g., crypto perpetuals), price discovery has shifted from spot to futures, as higher leverage and liquidity in derivatives lead spot prices.
Investment Potential: Enhanced via basis arbitrage (contango/backwardation trades), leveraged long/short strategies, and funding rate harvesting in perps.
Risk Factors: Amplified volatility from forced liquidations, squeeze risks, funding rate spikes, and decoupling from fundamentals.
Market Outlook: Greater efficiency and maturity, but heightened systemic risk during deleveraging cascades.
Derivatives Framework:
Monitor basis convergence for arbitrage.
Track funding rates for perpetual sentiment (positive = bullish bias).
Analyze open interest surges for momentum/reversal signals.
Assess volume ratio (derivs/spot >10x signals derivatives leadership).
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