wisliacy (wisliacy)

Quick FOMC reality check for the timeline: ⏸️ Rates held at 3.50-3.75%. No surprise there. 🔥 Inflation is sticky af. PPI hit a 13-month high at 3.4% and Core PCE sitting at 3%. Powell basically said no progress = no cut. 🛢️ The oil leak nobody's pricing in: Powell straight up admitted the energy shock is bleeding into core inflation through transportation costs. Geopolitics is running the show over monetary policy right now. 🗓️ The killshot: market just capitulated and pushed the first rate cut expectation all the way out to APRIL 2027. Let that sink in. "Higher for longer" isn't a threat anymore. It's the baseline. If you're blindly longing this dip you're fighting the Fed AND a global energy crisis at the same time. That's not brave, that's reckless. Protect your capital. 📉💼

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The prediction markets are mispricing the physical supply chain. Contract: Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by April? Current odds: 26% YES / 74% NO Here's why the NO side still holds a massive structural edge.

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Everyone is trading political theater today. Trump's Hormuz coalition collapsed. US Counterterrorism chief resigned. Headlines are screaming disaster. But if you track the boats, the narrative falls apart.

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The market is mispricing Wednesday's FOMC. Everyone is cheering yesterday's oil relief dump. Almost nobody is reading the RBA. Australia just hiked rates 25bps overnight. Their governor explicitly cited the Middle East oil shock as a 'substantial risk to global inflation.

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Everyone is trading political theater today. Trump's Hormuz coalition collapsed. US Counterterrorism chief resigned. Headlines are screaming disaster. But if you track the boats, the narrative falls apart.

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Marine Traffic confirmed 15 vessels including 5 tankers successfully traversed Hormuz in the last 72 hours. Iraq is quietly back-channeling with Iran to keep crude moving. The headlines say WW3. The logistics say business is finding a way. Stop trading the news. Trade the data.

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If the RBA is hiking because of $105 oil, Powell's chances of a dovish pivot tomorrow are significantly lower than the market is pricing. Add to this: The Hormuz coalition is fracturing. Germany, Japan, and Australia all declined to join the US militarily. Geopolitical risk is creeping back in. If you're heavily long risk assets right now, you're not trading a breakout. You're trading against central bank math.

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