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The poly-maker project, in simple terms, is about finding markets with low volatility and high rewards, placing two-way limit orders near the order book, and strictly managing inventory risk. I think the biggest contribution of this project is introducing the volatility indicator in prediction markets. The usual way of thinking might be: when running the strategy, you discover that the weather category has tail risk, so you remove weather, then continue running and find that the crypto category has tail risk again, so you remove crypto, and after a series of operations, there's nothing left to do. Volatility standardizes the risk levels across different markets. If we were to create an option-like probability surface for pricing in prediction markets, I believe it would consist of three dimensions: volatility, time decay, and information completeness. However, there are indeed some aspects that are not user-friendly and not very engineered: 1、This is a semi-automated solution, still requiring manual selection of the markets you want to market-make in. 2、Data storage uses Google Sheets, creating a new sheet for each additional filter, and updating only once per hour. 3、It does not incorporate time decay; lower volatility often corresponds to farther expiration dates.
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