@vincentle
Quick analysis of the just-released September 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report:
Actual vs Expectations:
• Non-farm payrolls: +119,000 → Strongly beat expectations of 50k (beat by ~+69k)
• Unemployment rate: 4.4% → Ticked up slightly from forecast and prior month (4.3% → 4.4%)
Overall assessment:
1. Job gains (+119k):
• A pretty solid number, especially compared to the very weak prints of the prior two months (August only +22k).
• Shows the U.S. labor market is still adding jobs at a decent pace and is not in serious deterioration.
→ Positive signal for the economy (eases “hard landing” fears).
2. Unemployment rate edging up to 4.4%:
• Only a 0.1% increase, but it’s the first time it has moved above 4.3% in…
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