HL's share dropped from 70% to a third, but don't trust the headline. Aster's volume runs 8x its OI, pure wash farming, gone the second incentives stop. Look at OI and MM profit, HL's solid.
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The strongest companies don't chase every opportunity. They say no to almost everything and go all in on what matters.
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The next phase of prediction markets will likely be less about who offers more markets, and more about who owns distribution, liquidity, resolution credibility, and social graph integration @polymarket
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