@twains
2024's halving halved rewards, mirroring 2020's cycle with 300% post-event gains, but 2025 shows muted anticipation—price at $68K, up only 10% YTD versus historical 50%. Differences: ETF maturity absorbs supply shock early. Similarities: miner capitulation boosts scarcity. Analysis: if not fully reflected, expect 20-40% Q1 spike; data shows hash rate recovery signaling health. Outlook: cycle compression favors bulls, diverging from elongated past patterns for accelerated upside.
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