TVBee (tvbee)

TVBee

technology and cryptocurrency. Opinions | Technical research | Economic models | Project investment research | Data analysis https://x.com/blockTVBee

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有用的冷知识!deBridge跨链有保护隐私的作用! 最近隐私概念大火特火,以z16z为代表的VC、传统金融机构,都把注意力集中到了隐私赛道。 各种ZK、FHE概念满屏飞。 其实deBridge就具有保护隐私的作用!并且,deBridge保护隐私是实用性、而非概念。 例如,蜂兄想把500USDT从以太坊上,支付给自己另一个钱包地址。这时候,蜂兄就可以使用deBridge,例如从以太坊跨链到BSC链。 只需要勾选 Trade and Send to Another Address,然后填入收款钱包地址即可。 这样,这两个钱包之间不会有关联,在交互空投的时候,是不容易被女巫的。 相对于通过交易所转账,deBridge更快速,也不需要提交各种验证码,也不需要在交易所里管理子账号。 而且,deBridge协议这种保护用户隐私的功能,不需要额外付费,也没有任何监管风险。 deBridge不是黑客的保护伞,而是普通人保护隐私的小棉袄。

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大事不好的是——非农数据本身好 终于,一波三折的11月20日结束了。 ◆先是FOMC会议纪要,美联储12月不降息预期。 ◆然后是英伟达比预期还好。 ◆再就是非农数据,再次降低了12月降息可能性。 非农就业人口,比预期高100%多,也比上月好很多。说明经济没有很差,仅看这个数据、美联储没有降息的压力。 其实失业率虽然符合预期,但还是比上月有上升0.1个百分点的。 看一下7-9月,美国的失业率,是有上升趋势。 而且看州数据,有的州已经达到了萨姆规则的临界值,就已经衰退了。 之前美国财长贝森特也说过某些州已经衰退了。 所以12月不降息是大概率,但1月应该是会降息的。 需要注意,市场交易的是降息预期,11月的下跌price in的是12月不降息。 那么1月降息的预期有没有可能在下个月price in呢?

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The U.S. government is about to reopen, but will the market definitely go up? First, the House of Representatives will start voting around 7 p.m. local time, which is around 8 a.m. Beijing time. The probability of the bill passing in the House is quite high, because before the formal vote, the House Rules Committee already approved it by a vote of 8 to 4. After that, Trump will sign it. Therefore, the probability of the U.S. government reopening this week is pretty high. However, does the reopening of the government necessarily mean the market will go up? Firstly, when the government reopens, there might be some sentiment-driven gains. But real, sustained growth requires the government to reopen and the release of various economic data. Only once we see encouraging numbers for employment, CPI, etc., will expectations for the stock market and stock prices truly kick in, and the market will really start to rise.

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Top casts

Brothers, today is EXTREMELY EXTREMELY EXTREMELY critical!! First, the two parties will hold their 15th procedural vote tonight. If the result gets 60 votes with consensus, the U.S. government is expected to reopen soon. If it still doesn't reach 60 votes, the U.S. government will continue to be shut down. This is bearish for both the economy and U.S. stocks. Second, NVIDIA has filled all recent gaps. NVIDIA's most recent lowest gap: closing price of 182.16onOctober23,openingpriceof182.16onOctober23,openingpriceof183.84 on October 24. Today NVIDIA opened at 184.9,withalowof184.9,withalowof182.09. Third, BTC and ETH ETF funds have returned to net inflows. On November 6, BTC ETF had a net inflow of $240 million. On November 6, ETH ETF had a net inflow of $12.51 million. ETH ETF returned to net inflows for the first time after 6 consecutive days of net outflows. Today focus on the bipartisan vote!

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Why is TODAY so critical? Let me break it down: 1/ This is the 15th procedural vote. In the previous 14 votes, GOP kept the bill unchanged. BUT today, they're making SYMBOLIC concessions 👀 2/ Example: Dems wanted healthcare provisions. GOP previously said NO. Now GOP says "we'll vote on healthcare AFTER govt reopens" - a small but meaningful shift 🏥 3/ They've also EXTENDED the temporary funding deadline ⏰ 4/ The math: Need 60 votes for consensus GOP: 53 members Dems who voted YES: 3 Votes needed: just 4 more! 🔢 5/ After 33 DAYS of shutdown, negative impacts are piling up. If 4 Dems flip tonight = govt could reopen within days! This is HUGE. Watch closely today! 👁️

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You can't just call it a bubble based solely on rising stock prices, right?! The P/E ratio equals stock price divided by earnings per share, which is suitable for reflecting bubbles. The P/E-TTM used here equals total market capitalization divided by net profit over the past four quarters, or equivalently, stock price divided by the sum of earnings per share over the past four quarters. NVIDIA's latest earnings report hasn't been released yet. As long as the most recent quarter's net profit exceeds that of the same period last year, the P/E ratio will be even lower than the current figure.

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Is There a US AI Stock Bubble? NVIDIA $NVDA had a P/E ratio of 52.8 on November 7th, with a five-year high of 240 (July 2023 peak). Broadcom $AVGO had a P/E ratio of 87.16 on November 7th, with a five-year high of 229 (December 2024). AMD $AMD had a P/E ratio of 115.01 on November 7th, with a five-year high of 1,376 (July 2023). Microsoft $MSFT had a P/E ratio of 35.2 on November 7th, with a five-year high of 40 (July 2024). Google $GOOGL had a P/E ratio of 27.08 on November 7th, with a five-year high of 38 (April 2021). Amazon $AMZN had a P/E ratio of 34.16 on November 7th, with a five-year high of 323 (March 2023). META had a P/E ratio of 26.77 on November 7th, with a five-year high of 37 (July 2023).

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