TQ2050 (tq2050)

持有 #RAILGUN 4 年，也看着项目持续建设了4年，币价这几天涨了三四倍了 @RAILGUN_Project 。 当然没有无缘无故的爱，主要是以太坊基金会把隐私研发正式组织化为 Privacy Cluster，而且Railgun 已跑通 ZK 私密多签（private multisig）原型，把“安全多签 + ZK 隐私”结合，正好对齐机构与大户的钱包治理刚需，这两件事情把隐私和项目的叙事热情给带起来了。

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至于我对Railgun的市值天花板的看法，可比较的就是chainlink了。为什么这么说？我的粗浅逻辑主要还是Raingun的产品定位是以太坊生态的“可组合的隐私中间件”，能用 zk-SNARK 把交易信息从公开进行“折叠”还能保持与 DeFi 合约交互。 后期主流钱包/聚合器把“私密交互 + 私密多签”做成一键可用的原生能力，且合规可选披露、审计模式逐步补齐，Railgun 走向“默认隐私层”的概率会上升。 特别是这次随着“私密多签”进入原型阶段，Railgun 在企业级/团队治理、做市与套利、家办与跨境结算等严肃场景的可用性明显提升。因为这也是RWA和传统的TradFi上链的刚需。

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https://x.com/tq2050/status/1974296374272287179?s=46

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This is where the mechanism becomes subtle. From a holder’s intuition, it is easy to treat all mining rewards as one smooth inflation curve pushing forward. From the protocol’s actual execution, that curve has been “cut” in recent years; realized inflation is lower than the naive mental model. But from a valuation perspective, lower near-term inflation is not automatically a positive, because at the same time you accumulate a reservoir of potential future supply. The path and timing of that supply become harder to predict, and that uncertainty shows up as a discount.

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