@topside

For the last few days, Twitter has been buzzing about the abrupt disappearance of Trump from all infopoles, and not just any disappearance, but old man died. Like he got a stain on his hand, his VP expressed his readiness to become president, and the Pentagon ate all the pizza in the neighborhood. It looks like bullshit and panic on nothing, but let's figure out how to predict such an event. Fact-checking through prediction markets. An event of this level will 100% reflect in the insiders' desire to make money, so both from the point of view of looking for a tinker and from the point of view of simple factchecking, I would first monitor the charts of Polymarket and its forks. For just chasing air on Twitter for views, and quietly betting a couple million bucks on an unlikely world-class event are not the same thing. In 2020, we already saw a similar fuss over Kim Jong-un's disappearance. So if a “Trump died” style event shows up on Polymarket or Kalshi with big bets, it's likely to be insiders.

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