Polymarket

politics

change my mind: in its current form, you can make more money using @polymarket to front run MSM's and the timeline's coverage / sentiment of the election than you can make from predicting the actual outcome

it will eventually become "the truth machine," but idk about rn and that's ok its still valuable today

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lol no I think its just time or even just my perceived time of how far down that rabbit hole I would go.

... you live outside of the US, so what's stopping you?

unless you actually can't use polymarket idk!

I literally ask myself every day why I don't do this.

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I also run a YouTube channel, "Learn from Open Source": youtube.com/elie2222 

🤷‍♂️ maybe you have an edge.

I bet just now on Spain to win Euro 2024 at 59%. I think it’s more like 70%.

But realistically if you test yourself against the market you’ll find the market is highly intelligent. There are smart people that do this for a living.

i live in america so i cannot bet (yet)!!!!

but say more? like the market movements from pre-debate to now have been very predictable for someone with a little bit of edge on what's about to hit the news (me)

There are plenty of betting markets around. Polymarket nothing new. It just reflects the rest of the market. And if you really think you can beat the market then just bet. But it’s not as easy as it looks (and people realise quickly the market is accurate)

69 $degen this is a very interesting take.

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I’m not sure we can use prediction markets as a reliable source of likelihood of an outcome, maybe just sentiment analysis. They are probably correlated. Looking forward to seeing the election outcomes to see how accurate prediction markets are, because seeing market swing by 40% based on a tweet or two feels wrong

say more? i agree with you that it has become predicting what people will think vs. actual outcome... but how does that affect how we view prediction markets today? how should we use the market to inform what we think, do, etc. if they aren't "truth" machines in their current form?

I’ve grown really skeptical of prediction markets. It’s a lot more about predicting what people will think than predicting the actual outcome. Only when the market is about to close that the “truth” emerges

sort of agree *IF* you believe crypto users are a "thought leading" demographic..because only crypto users can participate rn...but eventually (when legalized and more friction removed) it will be as you say the truth machine for a given point in time