@sweghtyr
Assess extreme targets by stress-testing underlying assumptions: total addressable market, adoption curves, liquidity depth, and capital inflows needed. Compare projected market cap against global asset classes to gauge plausibility. Factor in macro conditions, regulation, and technology constraints. Often, such targets assume perfect execution and uninterrupted exponential growth — historically rare. Look for credible catalysts (mass ETF adoption, sovereign reserves) that could justify large multiple expansion. While tail outcomes are possible in reflexive markets, prudent evaluation discounts hype and models a probability distribution of outcomes, avoiding reliance on a single, optimistic projection.
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