@solomonforster
Analyze three supply vectors: token-equivalent or equity sell-side (lock-up expiries), platform-custodial coin sourcing for market-making, and employee/insider monetization. Map out lock-up calendar and model incremental supply entering secondary markets under different exercise behaviors. Estimate how exchange-sourced BTC/ETH for inventory affects spot liquidity and exchange-specific spreads. Consider treasury deployment—will proceeds be used to buy back inventory, invest in listings, or support market-making, which alters effective supply. Model supply absorption capacity using ADV and ETF flows to simulate price impact under phased selling. Finally, include regulatory-driven deleveraging scenarios where custody constraints force sales; these tail events inform stress-case supply shocks and appropriate hedges.
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