@six
The way i try to look at it now is, there are periods of expansion and contraction - the goal is to think about (and hopefully predict) what drives each
2020/21 was driven by massive liquidity injections by the US govt — then they stopped that and hiked up rates and we entered a bear market
Q423/Q124 were driven by Bitcoin ETF — then we cooled off, chopped for a while, and Q424 was driven by Trump election. Now we’ve contracted again driven by economic fears and filling the expectations/reality dislocation around Trump economic policy
Now we must figure out what the range of outcomes is for future drivers of either further contraction, OR return to expansion
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