siddhant (siddhant98)

Pendle users were signaling a major ETH crash before it happened — and most people missed it. (Yes, you can spot macro shifts just by tracking Pendle yield flows.) 🧠 Pendle Finance is a revolutionary platform for leveraged yield trading — but it’s more than that. If you know where to look, Pendle yield flows reveal micro-level sentiment shifts across crypto markets, especially for ETH staking. The catch? Pendle’s interface is built for trading, not research. But Pendle is an on-chain protocol. You can directly query Pendle’s smart contract data through platforms like Dune. That's exactly what I did. By writing my own DuneSQL queries, I pulled Pendle's raw transaction-level data and mapped out user behavior across PT (Principal Token) and YT (Yield Token) trades on stETH markets. Here’s what I uncovered 👇

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New stablecoin on the block: Resolv Protocol ⚖️ Like Ethena — delta-neutral backed (long spot & short perps) 📈 <4 months live, already hit $550M TVL (10% of Ethena) 💰 $RESOLV token coming (TGE TBA) ⌛ Pendle on Base has two point-farming plays live 👀 Solid pickup for early airdrop farmers

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Ethereum staking isn’t what it used to be 🔹Dec 2023 Staked ETH: ~23.5% 🔹Dec 2024 Staked ETH: 28.54% (+5% YoY) More validators = APR dilution. 🔹Early 2024 APR: 4.3% 🔹Dec 2024 APR: 3.13% As gas fees plummet and staking competition rises, staking rewards are heading toward a low-yield future. The Pectra upgrade in March 2025 might improve staking efficiency, but unless: 🔹DeFi activity rebounds 🔹MEV profits recover 🔹High-value transactions return Staking rewards will keep declining. At 3% APR, is solo Ethereum staking still worth it?

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🔗 Ethereum staking is centralizing—killing solo staking rewards. Lido, Binance, and Coinbase dominate, with Lido alone controlling 9.39M ETH. Binance’s staked ETH surged 21.3% in Q4 2024, consolidating even more power. Ethereum’s staking issuance depends on: ✔ More individual validators = higher ETH issuance ✔ More ETH staked = lower ETH issuance With large pools consolidating deposits, fewer new validators are created, slowing ETH issuance while increasing dilution. Solo staking is becoming less profitable and harder to sustain.

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