@shantmm on Farcaster: "I'm a little late to this but ..."

7mo

I'm a little late to this but here's my bull case/bear case. Bear: This isn't an amazingly innovative or groundbreaking idea, so it seems like if it was going to be a game changer they would've done it a long time ago. Feels more like desperation. Like picking some old things up from the cutting room floor. Perhaps a way to hide trouble in paradise. Also, the idea that people are dying to find more services and "experiences" to spend their money on just feels very 2010s millennial vibes. Bull: As the economy deteriorates more, people will be looking for new ways to make side income through gig work and side hustles. Airbnb's existing market share will instantly make it the central marketplace for people who don't want to do Uber or Doordash. The problem with this bull case is that if the economy does in fact deteriorate, who's going to pay for all the services and experiences? The top ten percent will not float the entire economy forever. Rating: Mostly Bear

Brian Chesky

@bchesky

8mo

Now you can Airbnb more than an Airbnb https://t.co/UBz4unyrzU

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ted

7mo

ughhhh why am i forever an optimist?! i want to be a bull on this so badly, only because it is SO HARD to find high-quality services for women (like the ones they outlined in their pitch). yelp sucks, google reviews suck, i have to scour through tons of instagram stories + accounts like a detective to find a trusted service provider. that's my bull case. it could genuinely replace that.

shantmm

7mo

You could very well be right. I had no idea about Waymo's appeal to women until a few women told me.

7mo

i think the biggest problem is airbnb's core product is quite bad, and they're struggling to fix it. i love getting ubers, i hate staying in airbnbs. the average quality is dropping relative to hotels, while the price keeps rising.

shantmm

7mo

Exactly. Pretty hard to build a new boat while in a boat that's sinking.

garrett

7mo

Top 10% can keep paying the 90% for a while at this rate

shantmm

7mo

Not enough people though. You can only get so many massages.

Labor follows demand

Yes and for the top 10 percent demand follows asset prices, which tend to not do well in economic downturns

adam-

7mo

I'm sure there's good intentions behind this new phase, but to your point about desperation, it's clear to me this comes from the "we need to make sure our Q2 revenue exceeds Q1, so launch something then we'll pivot again in a few months" playbook.

jachian

7mo

Feels like they have major blinders to the obvious things to fix. Cutting back their customer protections is leaving them with an ever eroding brand that will be difficult to save Shouldn’t need to get called out in a very viral dunk to finally address the cleaning fees issue

chainstories

7mo

The bear case highlights a lack of innovation, but the bull case points to a growing need for alternative income streams. The key challenge remains how to sustain demand when the economy struggles.

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