@shamimela

🚨 DO NOT BUY A HOUSE THIS YEAR, UNLESS YOU’RE A BILLIONAIRE! I’ve spent 22 years in macro. I’ve seen every cycle from the 2008 crash to the 2020 blow-off top. Look at this chart. 2006 bubble peak was about 266. If you think the current market is safe, you’re missing the structural freeze. Buying in 2026 is a TRAP, here’s why: Redfin data shows a massive imbalance: 36.8% more sellers than buyers. Demand is sitting at the lowest levels since the 2020 lockdown. This isn't a normal dip, it’s a total loss of market velocity. Most owners are locked into 3% paper. With the 30-year fixed suffocating at ~6.5%, the "cost to move" is prohibitive. We have zero price discovery because nobody can afford to move. You’re buying an illiquid asset at a sticker price that hasn't been tested by real volume. Buying now means locking in a brutal monthly payment on an asset with capped upside. If you’re levered 5:1 on a house that stays flat while you pay 6.5% interest, you aren't building equity, YOU’RE BLEEDING CAPITAL. THE MACRO PLAY: Wait for the fatigue phase in late 2026/2027. That’s when the "wait it out" crowd hits life catalysts (divorce, relocation, retirement) and is forced to sell into a cooling economy. That’s when the affordability reset actually happens. If you must buy, do it like a shark: – Stress-test your income for a 20% haircut. – Keep your LTV healthy (avoid negative equity). – Only buy if you can hold through a flat decade. The math doesn't have emotions. Don't let your dream home become a zombie asset. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

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