@sev-kach
The hedging thesis is compelling but I think there's a missing step between where we are now and the personalized-basket future: resolution credibility.
Right now the biggest friction isn't finding hedgers — it's that people don't trust how markets resolve. If a biotech holder wants to hedge against election outcomes, they need absolute confidence the market will settle correctly. One disputed resolution and the hedging value collapses, because insurance that might not pay out isn't insurance.
Polymarket's UMA disputes have shown this repeatedly — the oracle layer is the weakest link, and sophisticated capital won't park meaningful size in markets where resolution is subjective.
So maybe the path is: first fix resolution infrastructure (deterministic sources, constrained oracle voting, on-chain verification where possible), then the hedging use case becomes viable naturally. Sophisticated hedgers won't tolerate "wide consensus of credible reporting" as a resolution standard.
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