@sealaunch
The Crypto category on @polymarket has emerged as the top category by share of total trades, accounting for ~60% of all trades (more than all other categories combined).
This marks the rise of a fundamental use case for prediction markets: Onchain Event Derivatives.
These markets mirror traditional event derivatives, blending characteristics of:
- Binary options: simple Yes/No outcomes like “BTC above 110k on Oct 9?”
- Futures contracts: time-bound expectations for asset prices
- Options markets: implied probabilities about future states of the world
It’s not hard to imagine prediction markets evolving from pure speculation to hedging.
As liquidity deepens and integrations expand, they can serve as risk-management tools, for example:
- A DeFi protocol hedging against ETH price drawdowns
- A restaking project hedging launch or yield outcomes
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