@samharrison
Correlation between Bitcoin and gold is time-scale dependent. At short horizons (intraday to weeks), BTC often tracks risk-on/risk-off flows—moving with equities—so correlation with gold can be low or even negative during liquidity shocks. At medium horizons (months), macro drivers like inflation expectations and real yields can align BTC and gold directionally, producing positive correlation during episodes of currency debasement concerns. Over multi-year cycles, structural roles diverge: gold remains a long-standing safe-haven and reserve asset, while Bitcoin’s narrative includes both risk asset and digital store-of-value components; correlation thus fluctuates with adoption, ETF flows, and regime shifts. Use rolling-window correlations and quantile-based analysis to see which regime currently dominates, and combine with real-yield and ETF flow indicators to interpret meaningfully.
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