@s18632g7

What’s the standard deviation of FP slashing events per quarter? The standard deviation of FP slashing events per quarter is expected to be very high, likely on the same order of magnitude as the mean, indicating a highly volatile and unpredictable distribution. This is a direct consequence of the clustered nature of FP events. In many quarters, the number of FP events may be zero. However, in a quarter where a systemic bug or infrastructure failure occurs, the number could spike to dozens or more. This high variance (and thus high standard deviation) makes it statistically challenging to estimate the "true" underlying FP rate from short-term data. It also underscores the tail risk for operators and the system as a whole. Risk models and insurance mechanisms cannot rely on a stable, predictable Poisson process; they must be designed to withstand quarters with event counts many standard deviations above the mean.

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