@rubyi
The 2025 BTC halving’s impact may already be partially priced in, but key differences from past cycles remain. Historical data shows BTC typically rallies 6-12 months pre-halving—this cycle, prices are up 40% since early 2024, suggesting partial anticipation. However, current macro conditions (lower interest rates vs. 2019, higher institutional adoption) differ: ETF inflows and corporate holdings mean more stable demand. Unlike past cycles, retail FOMO is muted, preventing overheating. The halving’s supply cut (from 900 to 450 BTC/day) will still boost scarcity, but gains may be front-loaded. Expect gradual upside rather than a parabolic rally, as markets price in certainty earlier than before.
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