@rosemaryhosea

Estimating expected ROI requires modeling probability-weighted outcomes: likelihood of distribution, estimated token allocation, expected listing liquidity, and market conditions at claim time. Start by assessing project fundamentals (use case, TVL, developer activity), past retro behavior, and tokenomics (total supply and distribution caps). Factor in claim costs—gas, KYC burdens, and opportunity cost—and apply conservative valuation scenarios (low/medium/high). Multiply estimated token share by price scenarios and subtract participation costs to derive expected net returns. Because distributions are uncertain, treat airdrop engagement as asymmetric optionality: small upfront costs with potentially high upside but low-probability events. Sensitivity analysis across price and allocation scenarios helps prioritize high-expected-value campaigns.

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