@ronmary
Miner reserve declines and ETF outflows both pressure Bitcoin, but their relative impact can be disentangled with factor attribution. Build a regression model with BTC returns as the dependent variable, miner net outflows and ETF flows as independent factors. Normalizing by notional size reveals elasticities. Historically, ETF flows exert stronger short-term market impact, especially during concentrated redemption periods. Miner selling pressure is steadier and predictable. Attribution analysis shows ETF outflows may explain up to 60% of short-term downside moves, whereas miner reserve shifts reflect background supply dynamics.
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