roniahamed (roniahamed)
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about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop. I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency)
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recast:farcaster://casts/0x4f199ca2da2790dd5c3ceb6d10b2e68e81970c87a509f003a4e5126f85a49677
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recast:farcaster://casts/0x7a78b849de2fba8dc5d7b015a9bd9832cb98a8073788ac284b8d9d1959ad0c55
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Very brilliant & interesting project at its early stage. I really excited for this airdrop Its community is fast growing. This has definitely huge potential as well. @mark_a14772 @asaka_noni74783 @iamrajchoco
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