@robocar
The four ‘O’s that shape a bubble
- Overvaluation: US tech has seen roughly 10x real price increases over a decade, valuations are near all-time highs
- Over-ownership: US households now hold a record share of wealth in stocks (52%), surpassing the dot-com peak. Trading activity and retail speculation have exploded, driven partly by younger investors’ pessimism about traditional wealth paths
- Over-investment: Tech investment has exceeded 6% of US GDP, beating the 2000 record. AI spending by big tech has more than doubled since 2023, yet actual AI adoption remains low (under 15% of US firms)
- Over-leverage: While households and firms aren’t yet heavily leveraged, risks are rising. Several Big Tech firms have shifted into net debt, government deficits are ballooning
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