We’ve crossed into a world where markets are an instrument of war: 1. VIX = 26 (nervous but not yet screaming). Even if the war de-escalates, we're going through a regime change in the sorts of assets that matter to humankind. Capital will continue to rotate into revenue-generating businesses, commodities and defense. You can feel this change in things like memecoins. They used to be funny and fun to trade. Now, they feel utterly devoid of meaning... like evidence of how detached money had become from "value." 2. I've never been a hater of hyperfinancialization. But maybe I should have been. It feels like a widespread societal disease rn. When Trump TACO'd on tariffs, it became obvious to everyone. Countries can use the stock market to influence foreign policy. In a way, that moves the stock market inside the theatre of war. 3. When markets become an instrument of war, it forces investors to play sick games: "Man, I need to short the S&P in case a nuke goes off!" And once you enter that trade, the perverted incentive structure means you benefit from darkness, death and chaos. 4. Higher energy prices are going to make data center politics explosive. Humans can cut back on energy. Data centers will continually consume more of it. Ultimately, they're our new halls of power. And they embody all our fears... fears over energy, autonomy, our jobs, our futures. It will likely be the defining cultural battle for many years as people feel like they're competing with AI not just for energy but for their existence. 5. We say markets hate uncertainty. We're seeing that in volatile prices. But markets are ultimately downstream of our psychologies. When we're feeling uncertain, we begin grasping for any sort of certainty. "I just want this to be over." "End it, no matter what it costs." Resist that need. Geopolitics is the most complex system on earth. You can't make an important decision that will have decades of implications just bc you're psychologically uncomfortable. 6. This is the biggest disruption to energy markets in history. Hormuz handles 20% of global oil, nothing comparable has ever fully closed. This will have material impacts on your life. Doesn't really matter where you live. I hope these changes are small and short-lived. But I'm at least preparing for massive and long-lived. You hedge your portfolio. Are you hedging Maslow's hierarchy?
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LLMs have 1 billion+ users... 67% use them for financial advice (and 50% use them for stock picking). This is going to create absolutely massive reflexivity in the markets... So what are the LLMs recommending? I just asked all four (claude, chatgpt, gemini, and grok) the same question: >> "imagine you know nothing about me... i approach you to help me deploy $100,000 across 5 investments. these can be absolutely anything... the goal is to pick the 5 assets that are most likely to be higher 3 months from now. what do you pick?" Every single one picked $BTC. Asked them to change the timeline to 12 months, and each included $BTC, too I remember thinking financial advisors would eventually recommend $BTC to their clients. They finally are, but now the biggest shillers are turning out to be AI. Don't let quantum FUD you out of the most asymmetric market on earth Other takeaways: - They're all insanely bullish AI, energy and semis - Grok and Gemini were more specific (picking multiple single stocks) while Claude and ChatGPT prefer basket plays/ETFs - Bittensor $TAO made it into Gemini's 3-month portfolio (it's finally breaking into mainstream mindshare)
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find it pretty amusing how people make fun of influencers who are "suddenly experts" on some trending news topic this is what reporters have been doing for 400+ years shit happens. you learn about it quickly, and you offer some takeaways for others. some of these takes will be terrible, of course, but even that gives you some insight into how other minds are refracting the news
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