@redphone

Quick thoughts on market turmoil: 1. Make sure your financial guru (whoever you listen to) has a gnarled up wrinkly face, gray hair, and lots of cash (you need someone who's still in it for the love of the game). 2. Why? We haven't seen a market setup like this since, what?, covid. Cash bazookas artificially propped up markets then, though. And you can't summon energy with cash bazookas. 3. I think 2007-08 is a much better trading analogy. If you weren't active back then, it was utter madness. You'd get limit up days followed by limit down days and vice versa... you thought things were ending and then a new company went bankrupt and you were certain the whole house of cards was collapsing. It was constant, unending whiplash that made you feel like puking. 4. But... even that market wasn't a great analogy. Probably the best is the 1973 Arab-Israeli War (Yom Kippur War). Few things we saw: - OPEC launched a 5-month oil embargo on the US, Netherlands, Israel and others - Crude shot up 400% - Dow fell 45% - Stagflation ATE wealth - Embargo lasted 5 months - Economic impact lasted "nearly a decade" 5. The US imported about 35% of its oil at the time (mostly from Arab states). There was no way to replace it, and the embargo created genuine physical shortages. Gas stations ran dry, and the government implemented odd/even rationing: you could only buy gas on odd or even days depending on your license plate. Lines stretched for blocks and sometimes miles. Station owners posted 'No Gas' signs. Everyone who lived through it still remembers and talks about those gas lines. 6. The weird part is how "calm" markets have been. My guess on why: 7. LLMs turbocharged a trend that was already happening: the complete devaluation of language. Everything is "historic." Everything will "change your life." This air-fried cabbage chip will clear your arteries and make your skin glow and 10x your libido. 8. So when something genuinely historic actually happens, we write it off. We've been trained by a thousand false alarms. The boy who cried wolf, but the wolf is real this time and we're still laughing at him. 9. Markets are waking the f up right now, and I'd be really surprised if we don't get some limit down (and limit up) days. 10. If you're having trouble w peace of mind, focus on what you can control... make sure you've got your "real" assets in order (access to water, food, medicine, starlink, and backup energy). 11. The surf is rising. Not much we can do but ride tf out of it. F war. Wishing you peace and love wherever you are

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