@rch

Went down the rabbit hole of prediction markets history. History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme. Back in 1503, Roman banks were already running prediction markets on the Papal elections. The main contenders were Cardinal Francesco Piccolomini, Cardinal Giuliano della Rovere, and Cardinal Georges d’Amboise. The market had Piccolomini as the favorite, with 2x better odds. As voting began, Piccolomini was trailing with just 4 votes vs 13 for d’Amboise and 15 for della Rovere. On the surface, it looked wrong. But the market wasn’t pricing just votes. As the election hit a deadlock, d’Amboise pivoted and threw his support behind Piccolomini, who became Pope Pius III. The market priced the outcome before it was obvious.

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