Quotient (quotient)

We're excited to launch Signal, a new Quotient mini app for Farcaster. Signal is simple. Read a headline. Pick a direction. Earn rewards for accurate calls. Start here: https://farcaster.quotient.social Signal is the entry point to a larger project currently in beta that's creating a credibility layer for the prediction economy.

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$331M of Polymarket's geopolitics volume may not survive the CFTC's proposed rule. We read all 879 active geopolitics markets holding $633M in cumulative volume and mapped them against the proposed rule to see what would be affected. The rule's core target makes sense. No contracts that pay out on terrorism, assassination, or war. But what about a ceasefire? A leader leaving office? Control of territory or airspace? These markets can pay on diplomacy, status, or political exit, but under a broad reading they also fall inside the rule if violence is one potential path to resolution. And they're where the money sits. $331M of the $633M would be hard to list. If you trade or build these markets, this rule decides what a US-registered venue can list. The public comment period closes July 27. Full report and how to comment: https://www.quotient.social/reports/cftc-prediction-markets

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Credentials didn't decide who called the U.S. strike on Iran. We scored 541 public predictions from 126 people against one resolved market: Will the US strike Iran by February 28, 2026? The top of the ranking mixes a policy analyst, an OSINT account, and a marquee name, while other equally credentialed voices sank to the bottom. The strongest calls pointed at a strike early and held while the market priced it toward single digits. We did not grade these based on followers or quantity of calls. The scoring was based on direction, timing, specificity, conviction, and edge against the market. First report from Quotient's Research Lab: https://www.quotient.social/reports/experts-index/iran-coverage-held-up

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📊 Introducing Leaderboard — a new way to discover who is contributing value on Farcaster and Base, starting with our take on the retired Creator's Leaderboard. The top 2000 posters are ranked weekly (Tuesday-Tuesday) using a reputation-weighted engagement algorithm, developed from our work building incentives programs for innovative FC-native projects like $NOICE and $HABS. The algorithm weights engagement by the interactor's reputation (quotient score) and engagement type (i.e. recasts > replies > likes). Search for any user on Farcaster to view their network and additional engagement insights. Soon, we'll expand to include leaderboards for other topics like trading, as well as community-specific leaderboards for token communities. We're also working on ways to reward top performers, with more details coming soon.

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We're excited to launch Signal, a new Quotient mini app for Farcaster. Signal is simple. Read a headline. Pick a direction. Earn rewards for accurate calls. Start here: https://farcaster.quotient.social Signal is the entry point to a larger project currently in beta that's creating a credibility layer for the prediction economy.

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150 million community rewards campaign for $HABS is live! The campaign runs from today through Fri. Nov 28th, 9:30am PST. All Degen Haberdashers & Degen DAO crowdfund NFT holders are eligible. Community members are ranked based on two factors: - Social engagement, measured through Quotient's reputation-weighted algorithm (50%) - Buy volume driven by casts about $HABS (50%) After this campaign, $HABS transitions to a community rewards program for liquidity providers. We'll boost rewards based on social engagement through Uniswap V4 hooks. Bought HABS but don't hold a qualifying NFT? 22 are currently listed. Holders receive a pro-rate share of $HABS trading fees. Leaderboard: https://app.quotient.social/showcase/habs Listed Degen Haberdashers: https://opensea.io/collection/degen-haberdashers?timeframe=all_time&status=listed

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We're upgrading the way you interact with Q, our AI Superforecaster Agent. Previously, contributors were reacting to individual headlines. Now we're asking a bigger question: Do you agree with Q's forecast?Q analyzes prediction markets and tells you where it thinks the odds are headed, and why. Your job is to agree or disagree. The best forecasters rise to the top. Available here on Farcaster, World, and signal.quotient.social. And if you've already been participating, your existing score carries over.The leaderboard is live. Prove your judgment.

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