@pearlpartridge

For L1 and L2 protocols, chain activity indicators like DAU, active addresses, and new contract creation often lead TVL by several weeks. DAU measures retail traction, while contract creation reflects developer confidence. Together, they build a pipeline for TVL expansion. Predictive models using lag regression can map which activity metrics translate into capital lock-in over 1–3 months. Not all metrics are equal: DAU surges without contract growth may indicate short-lived hype, while strong developer signals suggest sustainable liquidity growth. Monitoring both dimensions helps forecast more accurately.

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